Chasing the 750 di-gamma excess
Download Data
Download Figure PDF
Ambulance Chasing on arXiv
web counter

[10/05/2016]: The fit resulting from the first 50 days of data is failing. Information introduced at Moriond 2016 clearly resulted in the cutoff for the validity of the theory (the first plot with the red curve shows this nicely). The fit had a nice run though. Data was within 2 sigma of the prediction for about 130 days (almost three months after the fit)!

The functional form still holds. I added a plot using all the data to date for fun (second plot with a red curve).

[17/03/2016]: We got a new submission! See below for more details!

[17/03/2016]: The original fit using the first 50 days of the data has been modified to include papers which retroactively cited the ATLAS di-photon result, and are included in the current data set. Big thanks to Bradley Kavanagh for super useful discussions about the data!

The goal of the game is simple:
Can you predict the number of papers on the di-photon resonance on Jun. 1. 2016? 
The rules:
1. You can use only the first 50 days of data to make the prediction.
2. The model has to have 2 or less fit parameters.

You can download the current data set from the link on the left side.

The data is formatted as following:
<Date>  <Days from beginning> <Num. of papers on date> <Total num. of papers>

Data N(T) represents the number of citations to ATLAS-CONF-2015-081 as a function of time. Papers which appeared before Dec. 15h 2015 and cite the note retroactively, as well as papers which do not have an arXiv code, are excluded.

The citation data is extracted from the inSPIREs website and can hence lag compared to the information on arXiv.
The starting day is marked as 1, measured from Dec. 15th 2015. 

Send your submissions to mbackovic  .at.   gmail

See the current predictions below...

15/12/2015: ATLAS/CMS di-photon resonance

model info:
Poisson distribution with a two parameter Harmonic number (di-gamma function) as the mean. Least-squares fit.
by: Mihailo Backović.
Diphoton model 1

Diphoton model 1, fit on May 10

15/12/2015: ATLAS/CMS di-photon resonance

model info: 1 parameter fit! The model assumes that the number of papers per day is constant over the course of a week, but that the number of papers per week decays like 1/t.
by: Bradley Kavanagh
Diphoton model

All the data and information on this website is public and can not be used for ANY commercial purposes!